Model:

Updated:

2 times per day, from 10:00 and 23:00 UTC

Greenwich Mean Time:

12:00 UTC = 01:00 NZDT

Resolution:

0.25° x 0.25°

Parameter:

Minimum Temperature at 2 metres above the ground

Description:

This map shows the lowest temperature between 6 to 12 UTC (18-24 NZST) and 12 to 18 UTC (0-6 NZST). Though the modeled 2m-temperature often is not in agreement with the actual observation, together with 1. the temperature at 850 hPa, 2. SYNOP reports 3. and a skillful synoptic meteorologist, excellent Tmin 2m forecasts are possible.

Cluster of Ensemble Members:

20 members of an ensemble run are divided into different clusters which means groups with similar members according to the hierarchical "Ward method" The average surface pressure of all members in each cluster are computed and shown as isobares. The number of members in each cluster determines the probability of the forecast (see percentage)

Dendrogram:

A dendrogram shows the multidimensional distances between objects in a tree-like structure. Objects that are closest in a multidimensional data space are connected by a horizontal line forming a cluster. The distance between a given pair of objects (or clusters) are indicated by the height of the horizontal line. [http://www.statistics4u.info/fundstat_germ/cc_dendrograms]. The greater the distance the bigger the differences.

GME:

GME is the first operational weather forecast model which uses an icosahedral-hexagonal grid covering the globe. In comparison to traditional grid structures like latitude-longitude grids the icosahedral-hexagonal grid offers the advantage of a rather small variability of the area of the grid elements. Moreover, the notorious "pole-problem" of the latitude-longitude grid does not exist in the GME grid.

NWP:

Numerical weather prediction uses current weather conditions as input into mathematical models of the atmosphere to predict the weather. Although the first efforts to accomplish this were done in the 1920s, it wasn't until the advent of the computer and computer simulation that it was feasible to do in real-time. Manipulating the huge datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to do this on a resolution fine enough to make the results useful requires the use of some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. A number of forecast models, both global and regional in scale, are run to help create forecasts for nations worldwide. Use of model ensemble forecasts helps to define the forecast uncertainty and extend weather forecasting farther into the future than would otherwise be possible.

Wikipedia, Numerical weather prediction, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction(as of Feb. 9, 2010, 20:50 UTC).