Modelo:

COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)

Actualização:
27 times per day, from 00:00, 03:00, 06:00, 09:00, 12:00, 15:00, 18:00, 21:00 UTC
Greenwich Mean Time:
12:00 UTC = 12:00 WET
Resolution:
0.0625° x 0.0625°
parâmetro:
CAPE and vertical velocity at 700 hPa
Descrição:
The Convectively Available Potential Energy (CAPE) map - updated every 6 hours - shows the modelled convectively available potential energy. CAPE represents the amount of buoyant energy (J/kg) available to accelerate a parcel vertically, or the amount of work a parcel does on the environment. The higher the CAPE value, the more energy available to foster storm growth. The potential energy can be converted to kinetic energy reflected in upward motion.
It should be remembered that CAPE represents potential energy, and will only be used should a parcel be lifted to the level of free convection. When values are above 3500 j/kg and storms do develop, they may build rapidly and quickly become severe. Often these storms are referred to as "explosive storms" by chasers and professionals. In a high CAPE environment storms that develop can usually be seen by the human eye as rising rapidly. Higher CAPE typically involves stronger storms with a higher chance of large hail and other severe weather. Note that CAPE is usually of lesser importance than the vertical shear environment for tornadoes. The probability of large hail increases with CAPE, given at least moderate shear(values around 500-1000 J/kg are sufficient).
CAPE is very sensitive to small differences in the moisture and temperature profiles. While the maps indicate 1000 J/kg CAPE at some location, a skew-T thermodynamic diagram at that location may indicate 500-1500 J/kg. (Source: The Lightning Wizard)
Table 1: Characteristic values for CAPE
CAPE value Convective potential
0 Stable
0-1000 Marginally Unstable
1000-2500 Moderately Unstable
2500-3500 Very Unstable
3500 + Extremely Unstable
COSMO-DE:
COSMO
The COSMO-Model is a nonhydrostatic limited-area atmospheric prediction model. It has been designed for both operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) and various scientific applications on the meso-β and meso-γ scale. The COSMO-Model is based on the primitive thermo-hydrodynamical equations describing compressible flow in a moist atmosphere. The model equations are formulated in rotated geographical coordinates and a generalized terrain following height coordinate. A variety of physical processes are taken into account by parameterization schemes.
The basic version of the COSMO-Model (formerly known as Lokal Modell (LM)) has been developed at the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The COSMO-Model and the triangular mesh global gridpoint model GME form – together with the corresponding data assimilation schemes – the NWP-system at DWD, which is run operationally since end of 1999. The subsequent developments related to the model have been organized within COSMO, the Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling. COSMO aims at the improvement, maintenance and operational application of the non-hydrostatic limited-area modelling system, which is now consequently called the COSMO-Model.
NWP:
A previsão numérica do tempo usa o estado instantâneo da atmosfera como dados de entrada para modelos matemáticos da atmosfera, com vista à previsão do estado do tempo.
Apesar dos primeiros esforços para conseguir prever o tempo tivessem sido dados na década de 1920, foi apenas com o advento da era dos computadores que foi possível realizá-lo em tempo real. A manipulação de grandes conjuntos de dados e a realização de cálculos complexos para o conseguir com uma resolução suficientemente elevada para produzir resultados úteis requer o uso dos supercomputadores mais potentes do mundo. Um conjunto de modelos de previsão, quer à escala global quer à escala regional, são executados para criar previsões do tempo nacionais. O uso de previsões com modelos semelhantes ("model ensembles") ajuda a definir a incerteza da previsão e estender a previsão do tempo bastante mais no futuro, o que não seria possível conseguir de outro modo.

Contribuidores da Wikipédia, "Previsão numérica do tempo," Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre, http://pt.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Previs%C3%A3o_num%C3%A9rica_do_tempo&oldid=17351675 (accessed fevereiro 9, 2010).