Model:

BRAMS(Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System)

Updated:
4 times per day, from 08:00, 14:00, 20:00, and 00:00 UTC
Greenwich Mean Time:
12:00 UTC = 13:00 SEČ
Resolution:
0.5° x 0.5°
Parametr:
CAPE and vertical velocity at 700 hPa
Vysvětlení:
The Convectively Available Potential Energy (CAPE) map - updated every 6 hours - shows the modelled convectively available potential energy. CAPE represents the amount of buoyant energy (J/kg) available to accelerate a parcel vertically, or the amount of work a parcel does on the environment. The higher the CAPE value, the more energy available to foster storm growth. The potential energy can be converted to kinetic energy reflected in upward motion.
It should be remembered that CAPE represents potential energy, and will only be used should a parcel be lifted to the level of free convection. When values are above 3500 j/kg and storms do develop, they may build rapidly and quickly become severe. Often these storms are referred to as "explosive storms" by chasers and professionals. In a high CAPE environment storms that develop can usually be seen by the human eye as rising rapidly. Higher CAPE typically involves stronger storms with a higher chance of large hail and other severe weather. Note that CAPE is usually of lesser importance than the vertical shear environment for tornadoes. The probability of large hail increases with CAPE, given at least moderate shear(values around 500-1000 J/kg are sufficient).
CAPE is very sensitive to small differences in the moisture and temperature profiles. While the maps indicate 1000 J/kg CAPE at some location, a skew-T thermodynamic diagram at that location may indicate 500-1500 J/kg. (Source: The Lightning Wizard)
Table 1: Characteristic values for CAPE
CAPE value Convective potential
0 Stable
0-1000 Marginally Unstable
1000-2500 Moderately Unstable
2500-3500 Very Unstable
3500 + Extremely Unstable
BRAMS:
BRAMS
The BRAMS Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System is a project originaly developed by ATMET, IME/USP, IAG/USP and CPTEC/INPE, funded by FINEP (Brazilian Funding Agency), aimed to produce a new version of RAMS tailored to the tropics. The main objective is to provide a single model to Brazilian Regional Weather Centers. The BRAMS/RAMS model is a multipurpose, numerical prediction model designed to simulate atmospheric circulations spanning in scale from hemispheric scales down to large eddy simulations (LES) of the planetary boundary layer. After the version 4.2 the code is developed only by CPTEC/INPE team developers. The BRAMS uses the Cathedral model, but code developed between releases is restricted to an exclusive group of software developers. The software is under CC-GNU GPL license and some parts of code may receives other restricted licenses. The BRAMS incorporate a tracer transport model and chemical model (CCATT) and becomes a unified version, BRAMS 5.x.
NWP:
Numerical weather prediction uses current weather conditions as input into mathematical models of the atmosphere to predict the weather. Although the first efforts to accomplish this were done in the 1920s, it wasn't until the advent of the computer and computer simulation that it was feasible to do in real-time. Manipulating the huge datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to do this on a resolution fine enough to make the results useful requires the use of some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. A number of forecast models, both global and regional in scale, are run to help create forecasts for nations worldwide. Use of model ensemble forecasts helps to define the forecast uncertainty and extend weather forecasting farther into the future than would otherwise be possible.

Wikipedia, Numerical weather prediction, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction(as of Feb. 9, 2010, 20:50 UTC).